The illusions of Obaseki’s victory at Supreme Court over the Legacy Group, By Tony Erha

A faction of the Edo State Chapter of the Peoples Democractic Party (PDP), loyal to the state governor, Mr Godwin Obaseki, had just secured Supreme Court’s judgment against the Legacy faction of the party, as led by Chief Dan Orbih, national vice chairman, the South South region. The judgment by the apex court may seem to have ended the protracted crisis in the PDP, with the statutory recognition of candidates of the governor’s faction as the authentic ones to fly the party flag in the general elections, that are few weeks away, against the separate candidates featured by the other faction.

But, indications are that the case is far from being settled. Not even in the expectation of Dr Tony Aziegbemin, state chairman of the party, who after the judgment, presumed that the matter would be resolved and unity would return to the party.

But, the centre can’t hold again for Obaseki, neither the Edo PDP. The victory is of no consequence to Obaseki as he is as good as the loser. This is in the conjecture of a “phyrric”, a pugilistic encounter, where the winner and loser alike left the battleground with fatal wounds. A costly victory and a costly defeat, apiece.

Dan Orbih would play the spoiler’s role for an Obaseki’s dominated PDP. Anyway, the Orbih’s faction would be glued to the Gov Wike’s G5 group, which is on irreconcilliable difference with Atiku Abubakar, PDP’s presidential candidate and the party’s National Working Committee (NWC). They would endure the long wait in the flank to decimate the Obaseki’s euphoria of finally pocketing PDP, so that they could take it over in the state, as Obaseki doesn’t have what it takes to retain political party’s leadership.

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“If we could endure the years of our protracted factional battle with the governor, is it for another one and a half years that we can’t endure? There may be medication that are not effective, but there is no patience that does not pay”, stated Victor Amu, one of the foot soldiers of the Orbih’s group.

Indications are that the Legacy group would lurk in the corner to assist the All Progressives Congress (APC) or Labour Party, to win the presidencial election in Edo, and for most of the seats for national and state other assembly seats.

Ironically, lots of water had passed under the bridge of electioneering in the state. It is rather too late, in the day, for PDP to cover the grounds it had lost to the crises, with barely three weeks to the elections. PDP had been held back by the crisis and prolonged court litigation.

But, can Obaseki guarantee tangible winning for PDP in the contests, where his popularity had waned before the voting public, for what they now call the governor’s tyrannical rule of the state?

Aside this, Atiku had apparently acted contrary to the nickname he is touted with… “Unifier”. For he obviously played a divisive role for being so high- handed, and his taking side with the Obaseki’s faction, instead of uniting all the aggrieved, before today’s Supreme Court’s judgment. Atiku should have done himself some good to resolve the crisis, knowing full well that a festered and unresolved crisis would make him lose Edo, that is originally a PDP state. It is so obvious that the Obaseki faction, alone, can’t give Atiku the needed winning of Edo for his presidential race.

And Chief Orbih may be reluctant to rejoin Obaseki or trust him again, knowing the ignominy he had suffered all along.

APC, which had been campaigning non-stop and vigorously would win most of the NASS and state Assembly’s seats, where most LP’s candidates are not strong enough. In the presidential election, APC would do far better than PDP in the state. But, don’t expect the two to win the presidency herein! Peter Obi of LP is, no doubt, the most favoured presidential candidate.

● Tony Erha is a journalist and democracy activist and could be reached at tonyerha@gmail.com