● EU-SDGN warns of ‘uncompetitive’ race, PDP crises, litigation as APC holds structural edge
A European Union-backed report has projected Governor Abiodun Oyebanji of APC as the clear frontrunner for Ekiti’s June 20, 2026 governorship election, while raising red flags over voter apathy, vote trading, party crises and unresolved litigations.
The pre-election assessment by EU Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria, EU-SDGN, described the political atmosphere as calm but “largely uncompetitive” due to incumbency advantage and a weakened opposition.
—“Election likely peaceful, but not competitive”—
The report titled ‘Ekiti State Off-Cycle Governorship Election Pre-Assessment Report’ said the exercise is expected to be peaceful, with no major security threats so far.
“There is a high possibility that the election will be peaceful based on the generally calm and positive situational outlook prevailing in the state,” EU-SDGN stated.
However, it warned that worsening economic conditions and public frustration could drive voter apathy and encourage vote buying.
“The political economy of the state, with increasing public disaffection over poor living conditions, may influence voter turnout and encourage vote trading,” the report said.
—APC dominance vs PDP fragmentation—
EU-SDGN described APC as “the strongest political party in Ekiti State”, with Oyebanji’s campaign anchored on his “Shared Prosperity Agenda” covering infrastructure, job creation, education and healthcare.
While noting some internal disagreements within APC over ambitions and appointments, the report said the ruling party remains far stronger than challengers.
The PDP was painted as fragmented and trapped in factional disputes. EU-SDGN said unresolved tensions from primaries and candidate nominations have led to litigations that “could still alter the list of candidates”.
“The general perception in the state is that the election will not be competitive due to residual advantage of incumbency, elite consensus among major actors, resource disequilibrium, and internal contradictions within opposition parties,” the report noted.
—Voter apathy, INEC readiness—
The report flagged growing voter apathy, driven by perceptions that the outcome is “predetermined”, plus economic hardship and distrust in political actors. It noted Ekiti voters are traditionally aware and active, but current trends show disengagement.
Despite the concerns, EU-SDGN expressed confidence in INEC Ekiti’s capacity to conduct a credible poll, citing the experience of electoral officials in the state.
With 20 days to the poll, the report suggests Oyebanji holds all structural advantages, but vote buying and apathy could still shape turnout and perception of legitimacy.
