Tinubu: In search of analysts, historians and statisticians, By Tunde Amore

I have read and listened to multiple arguments over the viability of a Northern Christain as a vice- president for Tinubu, these arguments are mostly based on equity, justice and fairness for the Nigerian Christians but some have argued rightly that justice and equity do not win elections which is a very valid argument to make.

I have also realised the people making the bulk of these arguments are Lagos-based journalists, most of whom have never been to the North save Abuja; therefore, they have little understanding of the politics and dynamism of Northern Nigeria.

Since the advent of the 4th Republic, apart form 1999 when the entire country conceded to the Yorubas, no politician has won the core Northern votes except Buhari, but that did not stop the PDP from having three consecutive election victories.

That was until Jonathan neglected the middle belt, courted the core north with appointments and projects, thinking they would vote for him.

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For the first time in history, PDP lost states like Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger, Adamawa, Kogi and other Northern minorities votes.
That mistake gave APC their victory coupled with the role played by Tinubu in the South West.

Obasanjo and Jonathan both Southerners cruised to victory in 2003 and 2011 respectively, largely because of the massive votes from the middle belt.

The core Northern politics is largely dictated by the Islamic clerics who are mostly Fulani; they are already drumming support for Atiku from their pulpits. A couple of videos have been circulating lately showing these clerics brainwashing their followers saying that a real Muslim cannot have a Pastor as wife.

Forcing some APC candidates to print posters side by side with Atiku, the same way some PDP candidates did with Buhari in 2015.

Nobody should deceive Tinubu that he can win the core Northern votes these people will vote for their Fulani brother any given day over a Yoruba man. It will not be like the primary elections where governors were 100% in charge.

A recent trending video showed the Almighty Zulum, booed by a large crowd in Maiduguri when he mentioned the name “Tinubu”, the crowd was chanting “bama yi, Nigeria sai Atiku”.

Thankfully Atiku and Kwankwaso will split the core Northern votes and with the help of the governors and other APC contestants, Tinubu can secure 25% from those states, that’s the best he can do.

With the introduction of BVAS and the electronic transmission of results by INEC, we’re going to witness a huge drop in the padded votes from the so called KKK states and other core Northern states, also the millions of votes recorded from Borno and Yobe, despite the insurgency that has displaced millions will be curtailed.

The choice of a Christian VP is going to galvanise support for Tinubu across the entire Middle belt, most of whom are already gravitating towards Peter Obi and are proudly saying they would rather waste their votes.

There is also a huge Christian population in the North East, states like Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe, Borno and Bauchi, where Tinubu can harvest massive votes from.

Muslim minorities in the North West and North Central will be comfortable with a Christian minority as VP as they have felt the brunt of the Fulani bandits over the past few years and would rather vote a Northern Christain than another Fulani President who would further embolden the bandits.

In 1993 when Abiola/Kingibe won the presidency, the major concern in the hearts and minds of most Nigerians was a transition from Military to Demcratic rule, Bashir Tofa was also a relatively unknown politician unlike an Atiku. The Islamic clerics had largely been silenced by the military and could not query the Islamic credentials of Abiola.

Another blessing in disguise for Tinubu is the current OBIDIENT movement, this will eat deep into the South East and South South strongholds of the PDP.

As a Yoruba man from Ogun State, born in Lagos, schooled in Kwara/Kaduna, who has worked in Lagos, Abuja, Jos, Maiduguri and Enugu and living in Abuja, I owe it a duty to make this humble submission: an advancement of the Tinubu presidency.

I still marvel at the transformation on Ozumba Mbadiwe. Maroko was our pepper and tomatoes market. Look at the skyscrapers on that axis now.

I vividly recall how the ocean was eating deep into Ahmadu Bello way and you came to the rescue.

You are a transformational leader. Asiwaju, don’t let them lead you astray.
A Northern Christain VP is your pathway to victory.

Greater things await Nigeria.

● Tunde Amore writes from Abuja