NBS: Nigeria’s GDP declines by -6.10% in Q2 2020



The National Bureau of Statistics has reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by -6.10 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2020, ending the 3-year trend of low but positive real growth rates recorded since the 2016/17 recession.

According to the NBS in the “Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report” it released on Sunday, the decline was largely attributable to lower levels of both domestic and international economic activity occasioned in the quarter, which resulted from nationwide shutdown efforts aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

It would be noted that the domestic efforts ranged from initial restrictions of human and vehicular movement implemented in only a few states to a nationwide curfew, bans on domestic and international travel, closure of schools and markets among other which adversely affected both local and international trade.

It is also pertinent to recall that the efforts led by both the Federal and State governments, evolved over the course of the quarter and persisted throughout.

And that as at Sunday Aug. 23, 2020, the country’s total COVID-19 infections have risen to 52,227, with 1,002 deaths.

The report further indicates that when compared with Q2 2019, which recorded a growth of 2.12 per cent, the Q2 2020 growth rate indicates a drop of -8.22 per cent points, and a fall of -7.97 per cent points when compared to the 1.87 per cent recorded in the Q1 2020.

As a result, the first half of 2020 real GDP declined by -2.18 per cent year-on-year, compared with 2.11 per cent recorded in the first half of 2019.

It also shows that real GDP decreased by -5.04 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

According to the NBS, only 13 activities recorded positive real growth compared to 30 in the preceding quarter.

In the quarter under review, NBS said aggregate GDP stood at N34,023,197.60 million in nominal terms, or -2.8 per cent lower than Q2 2019 which recorded an aggregate of N35,001,877.95 million.

On the overall, the nominal growth rate was -16.81 per cent points lower than recorded in the Q2 2019, and -14.81 per cent points lower than recorded in the Q1 2020.

Noting that the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors, the NBS said in Q2 2020, an average daily oil production of 1.81 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.

This was -0.21mbpd lower than the daily average production of 2.02mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019, and -0.26mbpd lower than the Q1 2020 production volume of 2.07mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was -6.63 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2020 indicating a decrease of -13.80 per cent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Growth decreased by -11.69 per cent points when compared to Q1 2020 which recorded 5.06 per cent.

On quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -10.82 per cent in Q2 2020.

The data reveals that oil sector contributed 8.93 per cent to total real GDP in Q2 2020, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.98 per cent and 9.50 per cent respectively.

It also shows that non-oil sector declined by -6.05 per in real terms during the reference quarter.

This was the first decline in real non-oil GDP growth rate since Q3 2017.

The recorded growth rate stood at -7.70 per cent points lower compared to the rate recorded during the same quarter of 2019, and -7.60 per cent points compared to Q1 2020.

The NBS stated further that non-oil sector output was driven by Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture (Crop Production), and Public Administration, moderating the economy-wide decline.

On the other hand, NBS said the sectors which experienced the highest negative growth included Transport and Storage, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, Education, Real estate and Trade among others.

In real terms, the data shows that the non-oil sector accounted for 91.07 per cent of aggregate GDP in Q2 2020, slightly higher than the 91.02 per cent share recorded in the Q2 2019 as well as 90.50 per cent recorded in Q1 2020.


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