Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to 0.5 million barrels per day over recent days based on vessel count estimates, down from 19.5 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs reported last Thursday.
The firm’s tracking shows no oil tankers crossed the Strait on Thursday, March 12, according to two preliminary vessel count data sources.
The estimated total reduction to oil flows from the Persian Gulf stands at 17.2 millionķ
Reuters reported that Iran has allowed two India-flagged Liquefied Petroleum Gas carriers to cross the Strait, with the Shivalik tanker crossing under Indian Navy escort.
Goldman Sachs noted that of 17 reported attacks on oil tankers, no confirmed attack on Asian-flagged tankers has occurred.
The crisis has driven sharp gains in oil-linked securities.
The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) surged 12% over the past week to $49.04, trading near its 52-week high of $50.30.
InvestingPro data shows the fund has posted a 73% return year-to-date, with subscribers accessing real-time momentum indicators and over a dozen additional ProTips.
Asian charterers accounted for nearly 60% of Hormuz tanker transits with known charterers in the second half of 2025, while Asia-bound tankers represented around 95% of Strait of Hormuz transits during that period.
Goldman Sachs identified three potential paths for increased flows: Iran allowing safe passage for certain origins or destinations, general conflict de-escalation, or strong Navy protection for tankers.
The firm sees risks to its assumption of a gradual 30-day recovery from March 21 as skewed toward delays.
Goldman Sachs stated the medium-term impact on oil prices in both East and West largely depends on total Persian Gulf exports to the rest of the world rather than exports to specific regions.
In other recent news, Morgan Stanley has revised its estimates of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, now estimating closer to 0-2 vessels per day over the past 11 days, compared to the previously indicated 2-6 transits per day.
This revision follows challenges with positioning data due to increased levels of AIS disruption and spoofing.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%, attributing the change to the surge in oil prices amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The firm’s commodity strategists expect Brent crude to average $98 per barrel in March and April, with an upside risk scenario projecting $110 if oil flows through Hormuz are disrupted.
Bank of America advises selling oil above $100 per barrel, anticipating policy responses to mitigate broader economic risks at such price levels.
The firm highlights the significant year-to-date gains in oil prices compared to other commodities and financial assets.
Wolfe Research suggests that tax refunds might cushion consumer spending despite recent energy price volatility, although a sustained increase in gas prices could redirect consumer spending from goods and services to energy costs.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that the impact of oil disruptions on consumer spending may be limited, as energy constitutes a below-average share of total household expenditures.
Credit: https://ng.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/wolfe-research-reiterates-amd-stock-rating-on-ai-momentum-93CH-2393344
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