Nigeria’s protracted insecurity crisis has evolved into a web of criminality, terrorism, banditry, and mass kidnappings, that continues to destabilize communities and deepen food insecurity, displace populations, and disrupt education and economic activities.
From the northeast to the northwest and spreading across the Middle Belt, the state’s struggle against non-state actors has been marred by repeated attempts at negotiation and ceasefire agreements that often yield fleeting relief but leave citizens worse off.
Over the years, governments at both federal and state levels have entered into negotiations with insurgent groups, pastoralist militias, and rural bandit networks. These efforts, while unique in their approaches, ranging from amnesty deals to ransom payments and informal ceasefires, have produced temporary gains such as reduced attacks or release of abducted victims. Yet, these gains have rarely been sustainable. Instead, communities have suffered devastating setbacks, as bandits exploit negotiation windows to regroup, rearm, and expand their influence.
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Reports indicate that during ceasefire periods, criminal groups diversify into illicit economies, including illegal mining. The proceeds finance arms procurement, further fueling the cycle of violence not only within Nigeria but also across the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea corridor. This con underscores the calculated adaptability of bandits, who consistently outmaneuver state responses.
Experts argue that reliance on kinetic force alone has proven insufficient. The urgent need is for a paradigm shift toward information-driven, community-owned, non-kinetic approaches. The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), as the Federal Government’s lead peacebuilding agency, is best positioned to spearhead this strategy. Harnessing and coordinating grassroots peace structures would create the resilience needed to counter banditry’s appeal, while youth reorientation programs could reduce recruitment into violent groups.
For Nigeria, moving beyond short-lived deals to sustainable peace requires empowering communities to resist violence and reclaim their future.
● Steve Agbo is with the
Early Warning Situation Room (EWSR), Institute for Peace and Conflict Resoluti on, Abuja.
email- asoemaoriko@gmail.com
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