Obi, Kwankwaso, and Nigeria’s endless game of political musical chairs, By Magnus Onyibe

Nigeria’s political landscape has, once again, been upended—this time by the rapid rise of the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), a party barely three months old.

Founded in February 2026 by former Bayelsa State governor Senator Seriaki Dickson, the NDC is already being touted as a major opposition force, with claims of over nine million members. But what has truly jolted the political establishment is not just its growth—it is the speed and caliber of defectors swelling its ranks.

Within the space of 24 hours, from May 2 to 3, two of Nigeria’s most prominent presidential hopefuls—Peter Obi and Musa Kwankwaso—abandoned the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to join the NDC. Their exit has left the ADC, once positioning itself as the nucleus of opposition politics, severely weakened and hemorrhaging.

Their defection is no minor political footnote. Obi, former Anambra State governor and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, alongside Kwankwaso, former Kano governor and NNPP flagbearer in the same election cycle, are heavyweights. Their swift migration signals not just opportunism, but a deeper instability within Nigeria’s opposition architecture.

Advertisement

At the heart of this shift lies a legal crisis crippling the ADC. The Supreme Court’s reversal of a controversial “status quo antebellum” ruling by the Court of Appeal has thrown the party into uncertainty. With a looming May 10 deadline to submit membership registers to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the ADC risks disqualification from the 2027 elections.

Faced with the possibility of political extinction, its members are doing what politicians often do best—jumping ship.

But the ADC is not alone in its troubles. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once Nigeria’s dominant political force, continues its steady decline. Since its defeat in 2015, the party has struggled with internal divisions, legal battles, and a loss of coherence. Today, it stands as a shadow of its former self, with many of its members also drifting toward safer political harbors like the NDC.

Only days ago, there appeared to be a glimmer of hope. A high-profile opposition summit in Ibadan brought together key political actors with the aim of forming a united front against President Bola Tinubu in 2027. For a moment, it suggested that Nigeria’s fragmented opposition might finally coalesce.

That optimism has evaporated almost as quickly as it emerged.

The so-called Ibadan consensus has dissolved into yet another episode of political uncertainty, reinforcing a troubling pattern: Nigerian politics remains less about ideology and more about survival.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the career trajectories of Obi and Kwankwaso. Both men have traversed multiple political platforms in recent years. Obi alone has moved across APGA, PDP, Labour Party, ADC, and now NDC since 2019. Kwankwaso, similarly, has cycled through the PDP, founded the NNPP, aligned briefly with the ADC, and now landed in the NDC.

This constant movement raises uncomfortable questions. Are political parties in Nigeria merely vehicles of convenience? And do ideological commitments matter at all?

Critics argue that such frequent defections reflect a relentless pursuit of power rather than a commitment to building enduring political institutions. Supporters, however, may counter that politicians must remain flexible in a fluid and often hostile political environment.

Yet, beyond these debates lies a deeper reality: Nigeria’s political system increasingly resembles a game of musical chairs.

Parties change. Alliances shift. New platforms emerge. But the players remain largely the same.

From the PDP to the APC, from the Labour Party to the ADC, and now to the NDC, a familiar cast of political elites continues to recycle itself across election cycles. Names like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi dominate the conversation, regardless of party labels.

Meanwhile, governance outcomes remain largely unchanged.

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, a relatively small circle of political actors—perhaps no more than a few hundred—has rotated through key positions: governors become senators, senators return as governors, and ministers re-emerge in new administrations. The system rewards continuity, not renewal.

This is not reform. It is rotation.

In a true democracy, political evolution should expand participation, deepen ideology, and strengthen institutions. In Nigeria’s case, however, the game simply rearranges the seats without changing the players—or the rules.

The rise of the NDC may appear, on the surface, to signal a new chapter. But unless it offers a clear ideological direction and breaks from the entrenched patterns of elite recycling, it risks becoming just another platform in Nigeria’s endless game of political musical chairs.

And when the music stops in 2027, Nigerians may once again find that, despite all the movement, very little has truly changed.

The likelihood that both former presidential aspirants in the 2023 elections—on the platforms of the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), respectively—Mr. Peter Obi and Dr. Musa Kwankwaso, are now emerging as likely flagbearers of the newly registered NDC, whether as an Obi/Kwankwaso (OK) or Kwankwaso/Obi (KO) ticket, is a testament to the fact that Nigeria’s political space is witnessing a game of musical chairs.

In this game, politicians and parties constantly swap positions, yet the same individuals end up in power. The music stops, everyone scrambles for a seat, and very little actually changes.

Put succinctly, it is political musical chairs—what we are currently witnessing as politicians jump from one party to another in the run-up to elections, aligning with whichever platform appears most likely to secure victory.

From the PDP to the APC, to the Labour Party, then to the ADC, and now to the NDC, prominent political figures—such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and others in fringe parties positioning themselves for the presidency—are continually being recycled within this system.

While the party names and logos they leverage to access power—whether at Aso Rock, the National Assembly, state government houses, or state assemblies—may change, the players themselves have remained largely the same across election cycles.

Invariably, policies shift only marginally, while the underlying power structure endures.

This is the classic Nigerian version of political musical chairs.

From 1999 to the present, observers will recognize a recurring cast of governors, senators, and ministers who have rotated through various offices—from local government chairmen to state legislators, members of the House of Representatives, senators, and governors.

There is also a notable pattern of governors becoming senators and vice versa. In fact, the trend of former governors returning to the Senate is likely to persist in the 2027 election cycle.

The reality is that Nigeria’s political landscape has been dominated by roughly the same 200–300 individuals over the past 27 years of multi-party democracy, albeit in different roles.

This falls short of genuine reform, as the game neither introduces new players nor changes the rules. Instead, it merely rearranges who sits where.

And that, ultimately, is the disappointment: Nigeria’s political musical chairs continues to recycle power rather than transform it.

iku, Peter Obi, incarcerated Nasir El-Rufai to Rotimi Amaechi and Kwankwaso as well as others in the fringe parties pretending to be aiming to become president of Nigeria are all being recirculated in the musical chairs.

While the logos and names which they leverage to ride into the Aso Rock Villa seat of power ,and the hallowed chambers of the National Assembly, governors mansion and state houses of assembly change, the players have remained consistently the same election cycles after election circles.

Invariably, policies shift slightly but the power structure stays. That is the classic Nigerian version of the musical chairs. From 1999 to now, observers will recognize a lot of governors, senators, and ministers who have just rotated offices from councilors to local government chairmen, law makers in state assemblies to members of the House of Representatives and Senators as well as governors. There is a significant number of governors becoming senators and vice versa. In fact former governors reverting to being senators again is likely going to happen in the 2027 elections circle. The reality in Nigeria is the presence of the same 200-300 people, that have been bestriding the political terrain in the 27 odd years of the return of multi party democracy in Nigeria in 1999 but with different portfolios.

That is different from real reform because the game does not add chairs or change the music. Unfortunately, the reality is that the political musical chairs in Nigeria just rearranges who is sitting where, which is rather disappointing.

So, as Nigeria’s top politicians play the musical chairs, the NDC has become the main opposition political party, except if the ADC members have read the coffee leaves and intend to make good the much vaunted plan to pivot to the PRP, a plan which it later recanted, perhaps for fear of its preemptive action becoming self fulfilling.

In my reckoning, it may be unlikely that the leaders of ADC do not have plan-B which will be foolhardy and a further consolidation of the notion that they are the architect of their own misfortune. That is what l had pointed out in this column last week in a piece titled:”Elections 2027: As The Opposition Ups The Ante Via Ibadan Concensus”. In that piece l had no option than to indict the ADC for not conducting the necessary due diligence before jumping into the ADC boat and without making enough efforts to quench the embers of fire already burning before it escalated into an inferno that has literally incinerated and torpeded the ADC boat that was looking like the most formidable vessel than the PDP to challenge the ruling APC in the fast approaching 2027 race.

It is a pity that the party led by David Mark, ex senate president and ex military general did not figure out on time the dark signs foreshadowing the danger ahead.

As if fortune always smiles on President Tinubu who was favored by the separation between former vice president Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, his running mate in the 2019 presidential election, during the 2023 elections, a combination of which could have enabled them to defeat Tinubu as the duo had garnered over 7m and 6m respectively to come second and third to Tinubu who came tops with votes in excess of 8m in 2023.

Imagine what the total votes garnered by both Abubakar and Obi which is estimatedly 7m+6m=15m could have done since together their votes nearly doubled Tinubu’s tally. If all things were equal and the duo had to run on a united ticket as presidential and vice presidential candidates in 2019 had remained together and their partnership had stood the test of time and long enough for both political heavy weights to square up against Tinubu in 2023, all things being equal, the 8m votes that secured victory for Tinubu in 2023 might not have matched Atiku/Obi’s votes which could have been in excess of 15m.

But fortune smiled on Tinubu as Obi contested under LP platform while Atiku flew the flag of PDP as such they splintered their votes enabling Tinubu to secure victory. It may be recalled that Chukwuma Soludo, Anambra state governor who had framed Obi’s presidential quest in 2023 as a spoiler for Atiku Abubakar and an easy passage Tinubu.

Once again, the threat by the opposition to field a common candidate against Tinubu during their lbadan summit has evaporated.So, once again the coast appears clear for Tinubu’s return to Aso Rock villa in 2027. When that happens it will not only be a product of his political savviness and brinkmanship but an alignment of forces spiritual and unknown in Tinubu’s favor.

I guess that is one of the mysticism around president Tinubu who more often than not benefits as the stars often align to favor him to the chagrin of his opponents.

Otherwise, for th what explains the fact that the political storm which had gathered during the recent lbadan political summit where it was resolved that all the opposition parties will field one candidate against the incumbent president Tinubu in 2027, has suddenly dissipated faster than it was formed?

In the piece in this column last week earlier referenced, l had made the case that since the time to the election was too short compared to when the APC was formed in 2013 to challenge then ruling party in 2015, the ADC may be a party of the future with a better chance in 2031, when Tinubu would have completed his second term.

To justify that point of view l had relied on Bruce Tuckman’s group development doctrine which postulates that some processes – forming, storming, norming and stabilizing have to happen before an entity can start performing.

Perhaps, sensing that it is running out of time during which Tuckman’s template,if you like principle could not manifest before the 10th May deadlineto submit party members register, Obi and Kwankwaso decided to cross the aisle into NDC. But my proposition is that the best chance for the ADC and even the NDC which is faced with a similar dilemma with ADC to become occupants of Aso Rock Villa is 2031.

This projection is underscored by the fact that traditionally, in a relay race, as in political race, the contest is more likely to be won by any savvy contestant. That is because ,for instance in politics, the power of incumbency which usually gives contestants advantage, will be absent in 2027, so all the contestants can have fairly equal chances of winning.

So, my bet is on the APC to win the 2027 elections and remain the ruling party till 2031.
But it is welcoming that the realignment of political forces are emerging in the run up to the 2027 polls and the political space in Nigeria is not descending into a one party state as we had tried to assure Nigerians after critical and unbiased assessment.

My assessment is that Nigerians should expect more surprises in the political space as party primaries draw closer and elections D-Day loom larger.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, an alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, a Commonwealth Institute scholar, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos.