Is insecurity overshadowing Tinubu’s achievements? By Magnus Onyibe

That question is no longer confined to opposition critics. It is increasingly being asked by concerned Nigerians as reports suggest the country’s position on global insecurity rankings has worsened since the administration assumed office on 29 May 2023.

Data from multiple monitoring agencies paint a grim picture. Violence perpetrated by bandits, insurgents, terrorists, and criminal gangs continues to claim lives at an alarming rate. Casualty figures appear to be rising geometrically rather than incrementally.

In the first half of 2025 alone, at least 2,266 people were reportedly killed—surpassing the total fatalities recorded in 2024. The National Human Rights Commission documented 570 killings and 278 kidnappings in April 2025 alone. Benue State has recorded over 6,896 deaths in two years, one of the highest tolls in the country.

Recent incidents underscore the scale of the crisis:
• 218 people killed in Benue State in June 2025.
• 55 killed in Boko Haram attacks in Borno State in September 2025.
• 1,686 deaths linked to cult and gang violence between January 2020 and March 2025.
• Over 2,630 people killed in Plateau State within two years, including a deadly Palm Sunday attack.

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In parts of Kaduna State, armed groups reportedly attacked the same community twice within two months, killing and abducting residents with little resistance. Such repeated invasions raise troubling questions about the state’s control over its territory.

Nigeria is not officially at war. Yet the scale of fatalities invites comparison with internationally recognised conflict thresholds. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) classifies a situation as war when battle-related deaths exceed 1,000 per year. By that benchmark, some parts of Nigeria—based on reported figures—would meet the criteria of a conflict zone.

The concern, therefore, is not merely statistical. It is existential. If insecurity continues at this pace, it risks eclipsing whatever gains the administration may have recorded in economic reform and political restructuring.

There should be no no-go areas in a sovereign nation. Restoring territorial control and public confidence must become the defining priority of governance.

Arising from recent events, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that non-state actors—terrorists, bandits, and insurgents—appear to be gaining the upper hand over Nigeria’s security agencies, including the Armed Forces, the Directorate of State Services, and the Police.

Any claim to the contrary strains credibility.

In the past month alone, a series of deadly attacks in North-Central and North-West Nigeria—Ungwan Rukuba in Jos (Plateau State), Kahir village in Kaduna State, and Mbalom in Benue State—have left scores of defenceless citizens dead. The attack in Ungwan Rukuba reportedly claimed 28 lives and left many others injured.

The tragedy prompted President Bola Tinubu to suspend a planned four-state tour and prioritise a condolence visit to Jos. On the surface, that was the right decision. However, poor coordination and weak messaging turned what should have been a moment of national solidarity into a public relations setback. The visit ended at the airport rather than at the affected community, generating criticism and damaging optics.

The backlash is particularly striking given the President’s recent symbolic gesture: on his 74th birthday, he directed that his remuneration since assuming office on 29 May 2023 be channelled into a support fund for families of fallen service personnel. It was a commendable move, especially as security operatives themselves have increasingly become targets of violent attacks.

Yet the goodwill from that gesture has been diluted by poor political management. In a climate where critics are quick to capitalise on missteps, especially in a politically sensitive season, symbolism without strategic execution carries risks.

Compounding matters is the perception problem. President Tinubu had earlier faced criticism for not postponing a UK visit following an attack in Maiduguri. In the Jos case, his delayed arrival—reportedly due to a prior engagement with Chad’s President Idriss Déby on regional security—meant security concerns confined him to the airport. Images of victims being brought there to meet him have since been framed by opponents as insensitive.

Nigeria is not formally at war. Yet the scale and frequency of killings tell a different story. As Pope Leo remarked during his Easter homily, “We are getting accustomed to violence.” The observation resonates locally: 28 lives lost in Jos and 17 in Kajuru on the same day and 9 on Easter Sunday in Benue state underscore a nation in distress.

In matters of insecurity, there should be no no-go areas for a Commander-in-Chief. When a president appears restricted within his own territory—even for security reasons—the symbolism is powerful and troubling.

The challenge now is clear: unless insecurity is decisively confronted, it risks eclipsing whatever gains have been made in economic reform and political restructuring.
Clearly , based on the UPDC classification, Jos , Plateau state that President Tinubu was confined to the airport for safety purpose and not the advertised lack of time can easily be said to be a war zone. So, it would have been reckless for the security agents to expose the president of Nigeria to being harmed in any shape or form by the rampaging outlaws.

But the president’s communication team that should have been transparent by coming clean with the risk of allowing president Tinubu face the real and present danger from the unhinged violent criminals on the plateau, was not forthcoming thus enabling critics to lambast the president unduly. The use of the tool of misinformation and disinformation can be seen in the ungoing lsrael and US attack on Iran for alledged enrichment of nuclear up to a bomb grade.

Following the shooting down of a US airforce aircraft by the lranian military and the bailing out of an airman before it crashed, the lranian authorities offered via public information a handsome financial reward to anyone who could capture and bring to the authorities the US airman. Thus a highly multivated search for the airman was triggered. But the US Central Intelligence Agency, ClA reportedly deployed the tool of disinformation in lran to keep them off the trail of the distressed airman until he was able to safely climb to a high mountain from where he was rescued by the US military.

That narrative underscores the power of information management and manipulation.

In the light of the negative and positive purpose to which information can be deployed, avoidable negative information about government should not be allowed to fester.
Rather, the efficacy of state police concept currently in the making should be emphasised to underscore the president’s priotization of addressing insecurity in Nigeria.

In my view the 60 months (5 years) implementation framework proposed by the lnspector General of Police, IGP panel set up to implement the establishment of state police system appears to be unviable or efficacious. Ending insecurity in Nigeria is urgently desired and a phased implementation begining from 90 days from today-3 months is a more feasible proposition to me. The IGP panel’s recommmendation reminds me of what happened to the Petroleum lndustry Bill, PIB which remained on the drawing board defying passage into law for nearly two decades until it was finally passed into an act, PIA in a piece meal manner under the watch of Muhamadu Buhari’s presidency. Learning a lesson or two from that terrible experience, President.

Tinubu’s administration should be cautious lest the adoption of state police aimed at stemming the worsening tide of insecurity in Nigeria, get caught up in a similar web of bureacracy that had bogged down the PIA.

In my considered opinion , a centralized policing system in operation in Nigeris is hindering Nigeria’s security ecosystem from being effective as petrol and naira subsidy had been doing to the economy until it was ended roughly three (3) years ago by president Tinubu.

The tax system dating back to the colonial days which left a lot of Nigerians outside the tax bracket therefore denying our country of the highly needed revenue also recently reformed via the passage of new tax laws is another clog in Nigeria’s wheel of progress that Tinubu’s administration has removed.

Yet another positive developement via a court ruling is the direct payment of the federation allocation into the bank accounts operated by the 774 local governments across Nigeria as opposed to the payments currently being passed through state governments into the LGAs.

That supreme court ruling if and when implemented, would make the 774 LG headquarters the hub of economic activies nationwide instead of the current situation whereby only the 36 states receive the funds from the federation accounts directly and from which local government employees are paid monthly. Which is why no real economic activities are going on at the grassroots level therefore triggering/fueling the rural urban drift that currently defines our beloved country and one of the reasons there is human congestion in the state capitals and cities.

The two other yokes strangulating Nigeria yet to be removed through reforms are the archaic and colonial days electricity system anchored on a centralized national grid platform. The second remaining factor yet to be removed and which is also hobbling Nigeria’s growth is the centralized state policing system currently in the process of being reformed.

In conclusion, l would like to recommend to president Tinubu that the proposed reform in the electricity sector should be pursued with a similar vigor that Taiwo Oyedele, ex KPMG tax expert now elevated to minister of state finance drove the tax reform initiative culminating in the passage of the new tax laws. As such a dynamic and passionate individual with private sector orientation like Oyedele should be saddled with the responsibility of driving the reform so that the innitiative can materialize sooner rather than later.

The same strategic approach should be applied towards actualizing the long sought decentralization of Nigeria’s policing system for prompt realization of the taming of the monster of insecurity currently suffocating Nigeria instead of the metaphorical kicking of the can down the road for a whooping 60 months -five (5) years gestation period that the implementation of state policing system panel set up by the IGP has recommended.

■ Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, an alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, a Commonwealth Institute scholar, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos.