Nigeria has retained one of the lowest petrol prices globally despite recent increases driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with industry data pointing to the stabilising role of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals in cushioning the domestic market.
According to GlobalPetrolPrices.com, petrol in Nigeria currently averages $0.88 (N1,191.39) per litre, significantly below the global average of $1.32 (N1,787.08) per litre, based on an exchange rate of N1,353.85 to the dollar. This places Nigeria among the more affordable fuel markets globally, even as international prices continue to rise.
Across key markets, petrol prices are notably higher, with the United States at $1.075 (N1,455.39), India at $1.095 (N1,482.47), and South Africa at $1.189 (N1,609.73) per litre. Prices rise further in advanced economies, including the United Kingdom at $1.874 (N2,537.11), France at $2.152 (N2,913.49), and Germany at $2.343 (N3,172.07), while Hong Kong records as high as $3.967 (N5,370.72) per litre.
Nigeria also compares favourably within the West African region, where petrol prices are higher in Togo at $1.192 (N1,613.79), Benin at $1.218 (N1,648.99), Ghana at $1.240 (N1,678.77) and Cameroon at $1.478 (N2,000.99) per litre.
A key insight from the data is that very few countries globally sell petrol below $1 (N1,353.85) per litre without some form of state intervention.
According to GlobalPetrolPrices, most countries with pump prices under the $1 threshold operate fuel subsidies, price controls, or regulated pricing mechanisms to shield consumers from international market volatility.
In contrast, Nigeria operates a fully deregulated downstream market following subsidy removal in 2023, meaning domestic prices are directly influenced by global crude movements and foreign exchange dynamics.
Despite Nigeria’s transition to a deregulated market following subsidy removal in 2023, Dangote refinery has continued to act as a buffer for the economy.
While domestic petrol prices have risen by about 35 to 40 per cent since the onset of the crisis, this increase remains lower than in several other markets, with countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam recording hikes of over 67% and 49% respectively.
■ Continental demand surge
Meanwhile, African countries are increasingly turning to Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery as a major alternative fuel source, as the ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt supplies from the Middle East, according to a new report by Bloomberg.
The refinery, owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is witnessing a surge in demand from across the continent as governments and businesses scramble to secure petroleum products amid tightening global supply.
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For decades, many African nations have depended heavily on large refineries in the Persian Gulf for gasoline and diesel.
However, the war in the region has constrained exports, forcing countries to urgently explore alternative supply channels to avoid domestic shortages.
The 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote facility located on the outskirts of Lagos—described by Dangote as a “monster” project—is now emerging as a critical supply hub, Bloomberg report.
Inaugurated in 2024 after years of delays and cost overruns estimated at $20 billion, the refinery has been ramping up production and gradually reshaping fuel trade dynamics across Africa.
The report said countries including Ghana, South Africa and Kenya are among those said to have indicated interest in sourcing refined products from the plant to cushion the impact of supply disruptions.
Despite the growing demand, analysts note that the refinery may not be able to fully bridge the continent’s fuel supply gap.
Nigeria alone is expected to consume nearly three-quarters of the plant’s output, leaving limited volumes available for export to other African markets.
The tightening supply situation is already prompting contingency measures in some countries.
Ethiopia, for instance, has urged citizens to conserve fuel, while prioritising allocation to essential services such as public transportation.
Industry observers say the current situation underscores the strategic importance of domestic refining capacity in Africa, as the continent seeks to reduce its long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products.
In Nigeria, the House of Representatives has advised the authorities in the country to prioritize crude supply to Dangote in order to meet its obligations.
While the surge in demand is expected to boost revenues for the Dangote refinery, the broader concern remains fuel availability rather than pricing, highlighting the potential for prolonged supply pressures if disruptions in the Middle East persist, the Bloomberg report added.
[Bloomberg/Daily Trust]
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