Conflict early warning and peacebuilding: The path to sustainable peace in Nigeria, By Steve Agbo

Recently, I read an online publication that gave account of how a Southern Kaduna woman lost her two-year old baby in a stream in a bid to cross in the night while escaping from the suspected bandits that attacked their village. The story was followed on the same day by another emotional account of how Prof Sadiyat Halima Idris and three others were killed by criminals along the Abuja-Kaduna road (Vanguard Newspaper, 23^rd July, 2020). The two tragic stories offer an insight into the wide range of senseless killings, maiming and destructions emanating from ethno-religious and political crises as well as from terrorism, kidnappings, armed robbery and cultism across Nigeria. Some of the major hotspots are the Kaduna-Abuja, Katsina-Zamfara and Abuja–Lokoja- Okene roads.

The socio-psychological and economic impacts of these rising violent conflicts and criminalities across the country cannot be overstated. The killings have brought untold hardships to families, relations, associates and communities. There are widespread humanitarian emergencies as a result of the people displaced from their homes and means of livelihoods. The sufferings have added to the gory story of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) that had already been affected by the Boko Haram terrorism since 2009. Travelers now develop apprehension and fear before they can embark on their journeys. The prices of food stuff, household items and other basic needs of Nigerians as a result of increase in transportation cost have either gone up or the items have become scarce.

One of the major drivers of this violence is the proliferation of arms in the society and the inability of the authorities especially the policy administrators and military to curb the menace. The situation illustrates the decay in the system compounded by the lopsidedness of the national structure. That is, the current development is an extension of the widespread violence in the aftermath of Nigeria’s return to democratic governance in 1999. Many parts of the country are engulfed in one crisis or the other. For example, the Niger Delta crises, Ife-Modakeke war, Yoruba and Hausa riots in Sagamu/ Lagos, Tiv-Jukun conflicts, Kaduna and Jos crises were witnessed. Most of these crises emanated from minor civil disagreements, communal disputes, chieftaincy tussles, agitations over resource control or allocation, militancy, inter and intra ethnic rivalries, interfaith intolerance and exclusion, violent religious extremism, ethnic agitations, and a host of others.

The multiplicity of conflicts is not only due to the inherent animosity arising from the decades of military dictatorship that promoted the exclusion of one ethnic group or religion over another as well as the rampant violations of human rights. The harsh result of the pervasive violence is the change in attitudes and perceptions of Nigerians toward one another. One of the outcomes is the gradually changing of the age-long culture of peace of the people who were known to be communal, tolerant and inclusive.

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Technology is one of the major tools through which the violence and all sorts of criminalities and violence are being perpetrated in Nigeria today. For instance, the advent of the internet and social media such as the Whatsapp, Facebook, Twitter, Google and others has seen an upsurge in the carnage. Arms, IEDs or bombs can be fabricated by going to Youtube and this has increased the sophistication by which criminals foment the violence. Information and knowledge-driven economy including the digital connectivity has fueled the means by which fraudsters scam innocent citizens not only in Nigeria but also internationally. This has also given Nigeria bad reputation in the comity of nations. Nonetheless, the technology can likewise be deployed in mitigating the threats or risks of the violence. This has been under-utilized in the fight against violence in the country.

Consequently, Nigeria has come to a threshold where it has to scale up relevant and effective conflict management and resolution measures or approaches. That is, there must be a paradigm shift in its conventional use of the military to counter internal crises and other fire-brigade approaches to a more knowledge-driven conflict resolution method that can gather real-time information and data on criminal operations, strategies, trends and locations. An appropriate and effective Community Conflict Early Warning Early Response System would provide means to prevent potential conflict from escalating and nip the incessant criminalities in the bud. The system, when put in place and activated will provide immediate useful signals to conflict responders.

Similarly, the rapid shift to technology use will also provide opportunity for the citizens to avoid being adversely affected during sporadic violence. Not only that, the technological-driven system will enhance peacebuilding and conflict mitigation strategies such as mediation, negotiation, diplomacy, arbitration, amongst many others.  The same technology will counter the plans of perpetrators of violence before they are unleashed. While deployment of security agents and imposition of curfew in affected areas are part of the international practice for peace enforcement, they are no longer adequate and effective in building lasting peace and conflict management. In deed, the imposition of curfews particularly for a long period of time has been interpreted by affected communities to mean another strategy of weakening their position for violent attackers to act at home and prevent them from farming.

The cost of the above development is negatively impacting many communities in Zamfara, Benue, Kaduna, Katsina and Taraba States where formers could no longer go to their farms and thereby made prices of basic foodstuff and other essentials to go up. Movement of goods and services is being endangered and rising cost of governance as a result of threats or escalation of violence. The situation must be reversed.

At this juncture, I would like to reiterate the fact that the violent killings on our roads are not only becoming rampant and breedong concerns but one of the symptoms of prolonged mismanaged economy and governance.  On July 23, 2020, a media outfit, the Sahara Reporters reported the unfortunate story that led to the death of Dr Hassan Bello Mohammed of Agricultural Economics Department of the Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria and others in the hands of bandits. You would agree with me that killings of Nigerians regardless of their status and professionalism would worsen the myriads of nation-building challenges we are facing. Professional skilled and trained Nigerians have lost their lives due to the violence. The ugly trend must be checked.

The above underscores the need why the government should pay more attention to a knowledge-based peacebuilding and conflict prevention strategy that is result-oriented and sustainable rather than the conventional peace enforcement. The proposed strategy would make the government to be proactive in prevention of conflicts. With this approach, more lives and property will be saved. The use of technology is more efficient in responding to potential conflict than to wait before an eruption of violence as witnessed with the police response. If this strategy is embedded in national our consciousness, it would go a long way in mitigating the risks, triggers and effects of violence in Nigeria.

At this juncture, I hereby outline a brief on “conflict early warning early response system and peacebuilding” for better understanding and compliance. The brief promises to benefit communities and institutions who might wish to take this advantage for further actions:

Conflict Early Warning Early Response: – According Michael Sodipo (2014), conflict early warning and early response systems are basis for peacebuilding. That is, conflict early warning seeks to forecast the outbreak of armed conflicts, or, at minimum, to detect the early escalation of violence, with the objective of preventing outbreak or the further escalation of violence in order to save lives and property.

Whereas peacebuilding is about understanding why people fight in the first place, and supporting societies to manage their differences before resorting to violence. It aims to prevent the outbreak, escalation, relapse, continuation and recurrence of violence that can occur before, during and after conflicts. It is not a one-off event but a long-term and collaborative process, as it involves changes in attitudes including de-radicalization of indoctrinated minds, behaviours and norms.

Relatively, Nigeria government has spent huge sums on arms and weapons, which are used at best to prevent escalation of conflicts. Again, the information-driven conflict early warning and peacebuilding explained above have advantage of nipping conflicts in the bud to prevent avoidable deaths. In order to improve and galvanize the commitment of leaders in Nigeria for peace, it is important for leaders across every spectrum of the society to attend and acquire knowledge on Basic Conflict Management at the National Peace Academy of the Institute for Peace & Conflict Resolution.

▪︎Steve Agbo, NCEWERS, Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Abuja. 08023448485