2027 and Kashim Shettima: The quiet calculus of power, loyalty and survival, By Emmah Uhieneh

In Nigerian politics, silence is often louder than noise. The politicians making the loudest declarations are not always the most secure, and those absent from the daily drumbeat of endorsements, campaign posters and factional skirmishes are not necessarily politically weakened. Sometimes, they are simply waiting within the deeper architecture of power. That is the delicate and somewhat enigmatic position of Vice President Kashim Shettima as the permutations toward the 2027 general election gradually unfold.

For many observers, one curious question has continued to linger beneath the surface: why has there been comparatively little political “buzz” around Shettima within the ruling All Progressives Congress during the recent waves of consultations, endorsements and internal positioning ahead of 2027? In a country where political actors aggressively market relevance, the seeming quietness around the Vice President has naturally generated speculation. Yet, the answer may lie not in political isolation, but in the peculiar logic of Nigerian presidential politics itself.

Vice presidents in Nigeria occupy one of the most paradoxical offices in the federation. They are simultaneously central and peripheral — indispensable during elections, yet often restrained once power is secured. Their influence depends less on constitutional powers and more on presidential trust, political usefulness, regional balancing, and elite consensus. In this regard, Shettima’s fate for 2027 is tied almost entirely to the political calculations of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the strategic direction of the APC.

Unlike many vice presidents before him who cultivated independent political empires while in office, Shettima has largely projected loyalty, restraint and ideological alignment with Tinubu. He has avoided media grandstanding, maintained disciplined messaging, and rarely allowed himself to become the centre of avoidable political controversy. To some, this quietness is interpreted as weakness. To others, it is evidence of political maturity and understanding of power dynamics.

But beyond loyalty and restraint, Shettima has steadily carved out an identity that many within the political establishment now acknowledge as difficult to ignore. In contemporary Northern Nigeria, particularly from the North-East axis, very few national figures have projected intellectual clarity, rhetorical depth and administrative composure on the scale Shettima has demonstrated over the years. His eloquence, mastery of language, philosophical depth and sharp delivery have distinguished him within Nigeria’s political elite. Whether addressing economic reforms, security challenges, governance issues or humanitarian concerns, he speaks with unusual fluidity and intellectual layering that often leaves both supporters and critics attentive.

That quality has become one of his strongest political assets.

At a time when Nigerian politics is increasingly dominated by populist soundbites and emotional rhetoric, Shettima projects himself as a thinker-politician — reflective, analytical and deeply conversational. His speeches are often rich with historical references, literary allusions and strategic framing. This has helped him cultivate an image not merely as a politician, but as a statesman-in-waiting. For many within the North-East, he represents perhaps the most nationally visible and intellectually assertive political figure the region has produced in recent years.

His handling of the National Economic Council has also strengthened perceptions of his administrative competence. Managing a council that comprises the 36 state governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory requires patience, tact, consensus-building and political maturity. The NEC is not merely a ceremonial gathering; it is a sensitive arena where federal interests, state grievances, economic anxieties and political egos frequently intersect. Yet, Shettima has managed to preside over the body with measured coordination and relative calm, maintaining working relationships across party lines and regional divisions.

That leadership style matters politically.

In Nigeria, where tensions between federal and state authorities can quickly become combustible, the ability to convene divergent interests and sustain dialogue is a major asset. Shettima’s approach has projected him as less combative and more conciliatory — a politician comfortable with negotiation rather than needless confrontation.

This perhaps explains another dimension of his growing reputation: his conflict-resolution disposition.

Within elite political circles, Shettima is increasingly perceived as someone willing to mediate disagreements between political godfathers and their estranged protégés, between rival blocs within the party, and between competing interests in governance. He has shown an inclination toward reconciliation rather than escalation. In many ways, this reflects lessons drawn from his years governing Borno State during one of the darkest periods of insurgency and instability in Nigeria’s modern history. Leadership under crisis often sharpens either aggression or diplomacy; in Shettima’s case, it appears to have strengthened his preference for bridge-building.

This conciliatory instinct could become extremely valuable as the APC approaches 2027.

The ruling party is likely to confront internal pressures over succession dynamics, zoning calculations, regional expectations and ideological balancing. In such an atmosphere, figures capable of calming tensions rather than inflaming them naturally become strategic assets. Shettima’s political temperament may therefore count heavily in his favour, especially if the presidency prioritises stability and internal cohesion heading into another fiercely contested election cycle.

Still, Nigerian politics does not reward loyalty automatically. It rewards usefulness.

This is where the 2027 equation becomes particularly interesting.

The Muslim-Muslim ticket that brought Tinubu and Shettima to power in 2023 was one of the most controversial electoral decisions in recent Nigerian history. The ticket succeeded electorally because the APC argued that competence and political arithmetic outweighed identity concerns. However, as 2027 approaches, the same ticket may undergo a fresh political audit. The APC will likely assess whether retaining the same pairing remains electorally advantageous amid Nigeria’s shifting regional sentiments, economic frustrations, security anxieties, and widening religious sensitivities.

This does not automatically place Shettima in danger. Far from it.

Within the North-East, Shettima remains one of the APC’s most recognisable political figures. His tenure as governor of Borno during the height of the Boko Haram insurgency gave him a profile of endurance under pressure. He is respected in many northern political circles for intellectual depth, administrative experience and ideological consistency. Unlike transactional politicians who constantly migrate toward convenience, Shettima has maintained a relatively coherent political identity over the years.

However, politics at the presidential level is rarely sentimental. If Tinubu believes retaining Shettima strengthens northern support and stabilises the APC coalition, he is likely to remain the running mate. If, on the other hand, the party concludes that a different regional or religious configuration could broaden electoral appeal, then the possibility of replacement cannot be entirely dismissed.

That is the brutal realism of Nigerian power politics.

Historically, vice presidents are most vulnerable when they begin to appear either too ambitious or politically dispensable. Shettima, at least publicly, has avoided the first trap. There are no visible signs of open disagreement between him and the President. In fact, their public interactions continue to project institutional harmony and political understanding. Unlike previous administrations where body language, leaks, and factional battles openly exposed cracks between presidents and their deputies, the Tinubu-Shettima relationship has remained comparatively disciplined in public view.

Still, Nigerian politics thrives on rumours because real negotiations occur behind closed doors.

There are whispers in some political quarters about whether the APC may eventually seek a Christian northern running mate in 2027 to soften criticisms of religious imbalance. Others argue that changing Shettima could destabilise the North-East and create unnecessary internal fractures within the ruling coalition. Some believe Tinubu values Shettima’s intellectual contributions, political loyalty and crisis-management capacity too much to discard him casually. Another school of thought insists that presidential politics in Nigeria is ultimately transactional, meaning no position is ever guaranteed until party tickets are formally submitted to the electoral commission.

The truth likely lies somewhere in between.

What complicates matters further is that Shettima himself is not merely a ceremonial deputy. He represents strategic geography. The North-East remains politically significant because of its voting strength and security symbolism. Removing him without careful political compensation could alienate powerful blocs within the region. Moreover, Shettima has cultivated relationships across northern elite circles, the security establishment, technocratic networks, and sections of the progressive political movement that birthed the APC coalition.

Yet, another uncomfortable reality exists.

Vice presidents often become politically endangered when economic hardship intensifies under an administration. Citizens may not always distinguish between presidential and vice-presidential responsibilities. If Nigerians remain dissatisfied with inflation, insecurity, unemployment and governance outcomes approaching 2027, every major figure within the administration, including Shettima, will inevitably carry portions of public frustration. In such moments, political parties sometimes attempt symbolic recalibrations — and changing a running mate can become one such signal.

But dropping Shettima would not be cost-free.

It could trigger questions about loyalty, stability and internal confidence within government. It might also create perceptions that the administration is responding to political pressure rather than strategic conviction. Conversely, retaining him would signal continuity, internal cohesion and confidence in the original 2023 political architecture.

So where exactly does Kashim Shettima stand today?

He stands in that delicate Nigerian political space between indispensability and uncertainty.

He is neither politically endangered nor absolutely guaranteed. He remains relevant, influential and institutionally important, but like every vice president in Nigeria’s democratic history, his future depends heavily on calculations larger than personal performance alone. The coming months will reveal whether the APC prioritises continuity over recalibration, loyalty over expansion, or stability over experimentation.

For Shettima personally, 2027 is not merely about retaining office. It is about defining political legacy.

If retained and re-elected, he consolidates his place as one of the most consequential northern politicians of his generation and positions himself strongly within future presidential conversations after Tinubu. If replaced, however, the narrative changes dramatically — from trusted deputy to expendable ally within the ruthless mechanics of Nigerian electoral politics.

Either way, the silence around him should not be mistaken for irrelevance.

In Nigerian politics, the most dangerous currents are often the quietest.