2023 polls: In Edo Central, it’s Anenih versus Anenih, By Sufuyan Ojeifo

Last Wednesday’s Supreme Court judgment that resolved the issue of the valid list of National Assembly and Edo State House of Assembly candidates for the February 25 and March 11 elections respectively in favour of the Governor Godwin Obaseki camp of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has helped the party with some housekeeping at the twilight of the elections. Whereas, it is now clear who the candidates for the elections are, it has yet to be understood how the candidates, who have not been campaigning all the while their candidatures were challenged, will be able to cover lost grounds in three and five weeks to the national and state assemblies polls respectively.

This development apparently questions the preparedness of the PDP for the elections. It also discounts its winnability in the polls. Beneath the perfunctory rhetoric verbalized by the Chairman of the State Chapter of the party, Dr Anthony Aiziegbemi, and other leaders of the Obaseki camp about the verdict producing “no winner; no vanquished”, when, in fact, the landlord had been dislodged by the tenant in a legal battle of wits and grits, is a sense of muted triumphal, nimbly achieved in an expedition that now confers authority and bragging rights on the camp. Noticeably, there has been an inexplicable eerie calm in the other camp pluckily commanded by Chief Dan Osi Obih, the National Vice Chairman (South-south zone) of the PDP.

Orbih was quoted to have said that although, there were unanswered questions in the verdict, the rule of law was supreme. He called on members of the Legacy Group and party members in the state to remain calm. He had, however, described the long-drawn struggle in the party in the state as “a patriotic fight for internal democracy, justice, inclusiveness, equity, and a better state.” He had said he had no regrets for insisting that “the principles of the party’s constitution and the interest of the majority of its members are respected and institutionalized through a fair and transparent democratic process.”

Orbih thanked members of the Legacy Group for their “unwavering commitment to true democracy, justice, fairness and the progress of the party.” He had assured them that “the fruits of your just struggle will manifest in due course.” Contemplate this: “We cannot bow to despondency or surrender to the seductive appeal of those who have abused the trust of the people and their obvious tyrannical tendencies….. A lot of water has passed under the bridge. God knows what transpired. For our candidates and our dear leaders, you have done very well to defend the party. I am inspired by your unwavering commitment for fairness and true democracy. Trust me, you will never walk alone. I am with you.”

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In the circumstance, self-deceit, which is writ large in the Obaseki camp, becomes a matter of strategic consideration, not a normative order. Since the contention has been resolved by the apex court and has become res judicata, the Orbih camp must obligatorily decide on the trajectory to chart that will preserve both the party and its members, particularly those who would have been candidates in the forthcoming polls but cannot due to the judgment by the Supreme Court.

● In Edo North, it’s a battle between a benefactor and his former crony

Evidently, the Supreme Court verdict has altered the form, content, shape and texture of the National Assembly and State Assembly elections in Edo State. Ready to stomp through the electoral terrain from Edo North through Edo Central to Edo South Senatorial zones are both gladiators and upstarts. In Edo North, it is going to be a straight fight between a former governor of the State, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole on the APC platform and incumbent Senator Francis Alimikhena, who is angling for a third term in the Senate. He is the Supreme Court-validated PDP candidate. It was Oshiomhole who endorsed Alimikhena to replace Senator Domingo Obende in 2015 on the APC platform. He defected to the PDP recently when he realized that Oshiomhole had caved under pressure by the people to represent them this time round in the Senate. Oshiomhole’s candidature is thus more of pan-Edo North regardless of party affiliations. So, it is a battle of sorts between a benefactor and his crony with whom he had politically parted ways.

Whereas, Alimikhena is believed to have an incredible war chest to prosecute his poll, the Oshiomhole effects, his bravura performances, as particularly exemplified by the massive road infrastructure development and sundry other landmark achievements in the zone while in the saddle as governor still resonate well with the people. He enjoys a cult following. He is expected to leverage the enormous goodwill, as he garnered in the 2020 governorship poll in aid of APC’s candidate, to upset the applecart of Alimekhena’s third term ambition.

Although analysts have given the election to Oshiomhole, the former national Chairman of the APC is nevertheless investing time and energy in utilitarian electioneering, touching base with the people and telling them what he would do for them. And everywhere he went, the response had been: “Yes, we believe in you!” In fact, the conversation has benefitted so much from the bank of credibility, trust and social capital that Oshoimhole had built in office as governor.

● In Edo South, it is charismatic “Major” of the PDP versus Asuen, APC’s greenhorn

Although, he caused quite an upset at the primary election of the APC when he defeated a former deputy governor, Lucky Imasuen, to clinch the senatorial ticket, that feat has not removed the greenhorn toga from Valentine Asuen, a successful entrepreneur in the downstream oil sector. Indeed, the only factor he had working for him until Wednesday, last week, when the Supreme Court validated the PDP list of 0candidates produced by the camp of Governor Godwin Obaseki was the crisis and confusion in the PDP over who were the authentic candidates for all the elections.

With the contention now settled, Asue will slug it out with Hon Matthew Iduoriyekemwen, a former Majority Leader in the Edo State House of Assembly from 1999 to 2007, for which reason, the moniker of “Major” has since stuck with him like an old adhesive. Major has many factors working for him: he was a commissioner in the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and deployed that position to attract projects to Edo South and empowerments to his constituents. He has been largely and manifestly involved in the high-octane Edo politics from where he has constantly been showing love to the people and incrementally building a solid societal and cultural capital for himself. Significantly, he is running on the platform of the ruling party in the state and seeking to represent the zone of the governor in the Senate. The governor is believed to be in firm control of his senatorial zone and is expected to garner substantial votes in aid of Iduoriyekemwen’s victory. His victory will be in pari materia with the popular expectations about his candidature and the proclivity of the political elite, of which he is an eminent member. The consensus is that it is only if some forces work against him within the PDP that there can be an upset by APC’s candidate. The terrain promises to produce an exciting contest, against the backdrop of reports that Asuen has been able to reach every nook and cranny of the zone with his message of change, effective representation and greater democracy dividends.

● In Edo Central, it is Anenih’s Clifford Ordia versus Anenih’s Monday Okpebholo (aka Akpakomiza)

Were Chief Tony Anenih (aka Leader) to be alive, there would not have been two camps in the PDP producing two lists of candidates for the National and State House of Assemblies elections. The leader would have done the obligatory housekeeping as a command room guru to ensure the emergence of candidates for the various seats in the legislature both at the national and the state levels. That was the process that threw up Professor Oserhiemen Osunbor as Edo Central Senator from 1999 to 2007; Odion Ugbesia from 2007 to 2015 and Clifford Ordia in 2015. Again, were Anenih to be alive, he would not have allowed Ordia to jostle for a third term in the Senate. The late Iyasele of Esanland, who built Esanland into a strong base of the PDP believed that two terms were fair for elected office holders to contribute their quotas in governance. Interestingly, when Ordia got the ticket in 2015, it was on a platter of Anenih’s significant endorsement. He had jostled for the Edo central senatorial ticket twice against Ugbesia and could not clinch it because it was not his turn in the consideration of the Leader. When it was his turn, it was an easy ride for him.

A former Minister of Works, Architect Mike Onolememen had thrown his hat in the ring to dislodge Ordia from the Senate. He won the ticket on the platform of Dan Orbih-led Legacy Group in the PDP. But the Supreme Court verdict invalidated the ticket, thus giving Ordia a chance at a third term. But his opponent in the election is Anenih’s “son”, a loyalist to the core: Monday Okpebholo, aka Akpakomiza, who has already taken the entire Edo Central by storm.

A young, dynamic grassroots mobiliser, Akpakomiza, has redefined the political landscape in Edo Central, which is a traditional PDP stronghold. The prospects of his victory are daily increasing. He is largely seen as a “son” of the late Anenih much more than a senatorial candidate of the APC. For his sake, Esan people are not seeing APC as an opposition party in the zone but an extended platform to realise Akpakomiza’s senatorial victory, which is a perfect way to stop Ordia’s third term agenda.

In essence, the people are already seeing Akpakomiza’s likely victory as victory for the Anenih political family: the votes that are likely to validate the victory would be an aggregation of votes from the PDP and APC political families, especially in Ekpoma with a huge population of voters; whereas Ordia would depend on votes from the PDP family alone in which Akpakomiza has a substantial right of heritage. The Akpakomiza candidature, indeed, embodies a fresh breath of new ideas and ideals that, as believed, would put Esanland on the path of more rapid development and progress. He is said to be equipped with the requisite capacity to provide qualitative representation which would find anchorage in people-centred bills, motions and legislation. So, it is instructive to relate with the senatorial poll in Edo Central as a contest between Anenih and Anenih. Who wins? Time will tell.

● Ojeifo sent in this analysis from Abuja via ojwonderngr@yahoo.com