Nigeria stands at a crossroads, battered by economic hardship, runaway inflation, and a presidency that has left 97 percent of its citizens worse off.
In this grim landscape, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)-led coalition under Peter Obi emerges as the nation’s best hope for reform and renewal. Yet, Farooq Kperogi, in a recent column titled Why the Anti-Tinubu Coalition Isn’t Coalescing, attempts to pour cold water on this momentum.
Cloaked in deceptive academic prose, Kperogi’s piece recycles propaganda points that serve President Bola Tinubu’s political interests.
We must now set the records straight by dismantling his arguments, exposing his contradictions, and affirming Obi’s natural leadership of a coalition that is not only viable but poised for victory in 2027.
● The fiction of aspirational collision
Kperogi’s first thesis is built on sand. He claims that irreconcilable ambitions between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi will doom the coalition. He further argues that Obi’s supporters would revolt if he accepts a vice-presidential slot. But the facts tell a different story.
Obi’s 2023 campaign changed the game. He won over six million votes, swept Lagos and Abuja, carried 11 states, and posted strong numbers in the North.
Obi won in Plateau and secured over 190,000 votes in Nasarawa. His support base, fuelled by the Obidient movement, is a youth-driven engine of reform that insists on one thing: Obi must lead, not follow.
Atiku, for his part, is a seasoned coalition builder. He is a nationalist, and at this stage of his life and political career, a well-respected eminent statesman.
In 2019, Atiku chose Obi as his running mate to energise southern voters. In 2025, Atiku, more than anyone else, including Kperogi, knows the ground has shifted.
Obi has the momentum, commands proven high numbers, and has the trust of a largely youthful and disillusioned electorate.
While final announcements are pending, reports from DW and other outlets confirm that Atiku is engaged in talks to support Obi’s presidential bid.
Additionally, Kperogi also misrepresents southern sentiment. He implies that Obi stepping aside would be seen as betrayal, but the South’s 2023 vote showed clear-headed pragmatism.
Obi’s governance in Anambra, where he left N75 billion in reserves and overhauled education, shows a man committed not to region but to nation. Nigerians are not looking for ethnic champions. They are looking for competence.
● Northern politicians: Strategic allies
Kperogi’s second claim is that ambitious northern politicians will torpedo the coalition to protect their 2031 chances or avoid Tinubu’s wrath. This is nothing more than APC-inspired fear-mongering dressed up as independent analysis.
Northern political heavyweights are not lining up behind Tinubu. They are bailing out. Nasir el-Rufai, once a Tinubu ally, has defected to the ADC after months of public discontent. Kperogi previously predicted he would join the SDP. He was wrong.
To be clear, El-Rufai’s move is not opportunism. It is a calculated rejection of a failing presidency.
Rotimi Amaechi, a former APC stalwart, has joined the coalition, publicly affirming support for southern leadership in 2027, as seen in his recent critiques of Tinubu’s policies.
David Mark brings statesmanlike heft. Together, they form a formidable bloc.
Tinubu’s appeal in the North is evaporating. According to Dr Dele Sobowale’s May 2025 survey, 99 percent of Nigerians expect no improvement from Tinubu’s remaining tenure.
That is not the profile of a president whose support can deliver 2031. Northern politicians, driven by political logic and survival, see Obi’s coalition as the surest path to relevance and redemption.
It is worth pointing out that Kperogi flip-flops on this important point. When El-Rufai appeared to be aligning with a third force, Kperogi praised him. Now that El-Rufai is in the ADC, he is suddenly cast as a saboteur. The inconsistency is glaring. The objective is clear: undermine unity and deflate the opposition.
● Tinubu’s bandwagon strategy: Illusion with no engine
Kperogi’s third argument is that Tinubu’s so-called “bandwagon” effect, fuelled by elite defections and celebrity theatrics, will bury the opposition. He cites figures like Davido and APC cross-carpets as proof of momentum. But this is classic misdirection aimed at deceiving Nigerians.
The bandwagon has no wheels. Most defections to the APC are driven by fear and survival, not belief. In contrast, the ADC coalition mirrors the 2015 APC template that toppled Jonathan. Then, it was Buhari, Tinubu, and Amaechi. Today, it is Obi, Atiku, and el-Rufai. This is not mere arithmetic. It is a political tsunami.
Davido’s presence at an APC function does not move the political dial. His uncle is a PDP governor. His cultural relevance is undeniable, but his political influence is limited.
Kperogi’s focus on celebrity optics while ignoring digital activism reeks of intentional distortion. On X, the Obidient movement dominates every day, dwarfing APC influencers. Metrics do not lie. The Obidients can take on any political bloc, pound for pound.
Most importantly, Obi’s policy propositions directly answer Nigeria’s pain points. Restoring fuel subsidies, supporting SMEs, and reducing waste are not just slogans. They are battle-tested ideas from his Anambra years. While Tinubu spends billions on presidential jets and vice presidential mansions, Obi’s message of prudent governance resonates.
Kperogi himself once called Tinubu’s subsidy removal “economic hell.” Yet now, he suggests that the same man is destined for re-election. His argument is not just contradictory. It is complicit in spreading despair to encourage political surrender.
● Kperogi’s two-faced agenda
Kperogi presents himself as an unaffiliated analyst. But a closer look shows a consistent pattern of sabotage. He criticises Tinubu’s policies, then undermines any alternative. He raises the alarms about inflation and insecurity, then attacks the one coalition capable of changing course.
His past errors speak volumes. He misreported el-Rufai’s political move. He mischaracterised Tinubu’s “Emi lo kan” speech. He relies on vague social media chatter rather than credible sources. He dismisses Obi’s record while elevating discredited narratives.
Moreover, Kperogi frames every opposition advance as futile, always returning to the same refrain: Tinubu is inevitable. That is not journalism. That is psychological warfare, and the aim is to weaken the resolve of disillusioned Nigerians.
● Why the Coalition will succeed with Obi leading
The ADC coalition, with Peter Obi at its helm, stands on solid ground. The numbers are there: Obi’s 6.1 million votes plus Atiku’s 6.9 million in 2023 far exceed Tinubu’s 8.7 million.
A unified ticket with Obi leading will flip key states and sweep the middle belt. Add El-Rufai’s northern networks, and the electoral map begins to shift decisively.
Obi’s policy credibility is unmatched. He has governed without godfathers, left office with a surplus, and inspired millions to believe in clean governance.
His manifesto addresses Nigeria’s most pressing issues: security, job creation, education, and inflation, issues that Nigeria’s largely young demographic cares about. While Tinubu’s team clings to neoliberal orthodoxy, Obi proposes people-first solutions.
The youth are watching. They are mobilised, organised, and online. The Obidient wave that surged in 2023 has not waned. It has matured and multiplied.
With digital platforms amplifying voices and exposing propaganda, the days of media-controlled narratives are over. This coalition does not need celebrities. It has citizens.
● Obi’s Coalition is Nigeria’s best chance
Kperogi’s column is not harmless commentary. It is a strategic effort to demoralise, distract, and derail. It borrows talking points from APC operatives, spins contradictions into analysis, and weaponises doubt against a growing coalition of hope.
Obi’s leadership is not merely symbolic. It is grounded in competence, vision, and a proven record of reform, promising affordable fuel, job creation, and a Nigeria where 97% dissatisfaction becomes a distant memory.
His candidacy is not about ego. It is about rescuing a nation in crisis. It is rooted in a 6.1 million votes showing at the last presidential election. With Atiku’s statesmanship, el-Rufai’s defiance, and a movement that spans tribes and timelines, the ADC coalition has all the ingredients for victory.
The opposition is not broken. It is building. And with Peter Obi at the helm, it will win.
To fellow Nigerians: ignore the doomsayers. Reject the theatre of inevitability. Get ready. 2027 is not a coronation. It is a contest. And this time, the people will write the script.
■ Ainofenokhai Momodu, PhD, is a political economist, based in South Africa.
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