How Nigeria’s five-year GDP rebasing journey will redefine the nation’s future, By Jonathan Suleiman

After five years of preparation, rigorous fieldwork, and extensive technical validation, Nigeria is set to unveil its newly rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, ushering in a more accurate, contemporary understanding of the country’s economic structure. Behind these updated numbers lies a compelling story of a country taking bold steps to view its economy through a sharper and more relevant lens, correcting the distortions of outdated data and laying a stronger foundation for informed decision-making.

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The journey began quietly in the last quarter of 2018. What followed was an extensive national effort spearheaded by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with support from international development partners. Over five years, teams of statisticians, researchers, and field officers set out to capture economic activities that had been previously overlooked or poorly understood. These included segments like research and development, trade margins, transportation logistics, water supply, waste management, and environmental remediation. These sectors, although often invisible in older data structures, represent essential components of the modern Nigerian economy.

However, fieldwork was only part of the story. Behind the scenes, the NBS built its new GDP estimates on the most internationally advanced statistical frameworks available. This included the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA), the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC Rev. 4), the Central Product Classification (CPC Ver. 2), the construction of Supply and Use Tables (SUT), and the application of the Balance of Payments Manual Version 6, as well as the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2014).

These tools represent the gold standard in economic measurement and are used by only a limited number of countries worldwide due to their complexity and technical requirements. The SUT, in particular, served as the foundation for the final estimates, providing a detailed and coherent framework for understanding how goods and services are produced, distributed, and consumed in Nigeria.

The outcome of this rebasing exercise is not just a revised set of figures, but a revised national narrative. The numbers will show that the Nigerian economy is larger and more diversified than previously reported, not because the fundamentals changed overnight, but because we are now measuring them more accurately. New sectors have emerged, others have grown, and many informal or previously untracked areas have now been formally recognised in the economic framework.

However, it is essential to note that while rebasing alters our understanding of the economy, it does not alter the economic reality on the ground. It does not instantly eliminate poverty or reduce unemployment. What it does offer is a more precise roadmap for solving these problems. By identifying which sectors are truly driving growth and which ones are being left behind, policymakers can now design more innovative, more targeted interventions. For instance, the rebased data suggests that much of the GDP growth is being driven by capital-intensive, rather than labour-intensive sectors. This insight explains the paradox of a “growing” economy with persistently high unemployment.

For the ordinary Nigerian, these new numbers may seem abstract or distant, but their implications are far-reaching. A more accurate GDP allows governments to craft policies that better reflect economic realities, allocate resources more effectively, and attract investment into high-potential sectors. It empowers consumers with a better understanding of national trends and gives investors, both local and international, a more reliable basis for decision-making. Over time, this translates into jobs, services, infrastructure, and broader economic opportunities.

Some may wonder if the figures we have been relying on for the past decade were flawed. The answer, as the NBS clarifies, is no. The previous GDP estimates were accurate within the context of the data and tools available at the time. However, the rebased series is a significant upgrade, more expansive, inclusive, and technically robust. It provides a more comprehensive and accurate picture of Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.

One key distinction highlighted by the rebasing is the difference between nominal and real GDP. Nominal GDP reflects the total value of goods and services based on current market prices, which can be influenced by inflation. Real GDP, on the other hand, adjusts for price changes by referencing a fixed base year, now 2019, providing a more stable metric for comparing economic performance over time. The decision to use 2019 as the new base year is strategic, providing a pre-pandemic reference point that avoids the distortions caused by global economic disruption.

In economic terms, the implications of this exercise are significant. With a clearer picture of Nigeria’s sectoral contributions, government and private sector actors can identify emerging engines of growth, reevaluate fiscal policy, and realign investments to achieve a better impact. In the medium to long term, this can stimulate job creation, improve income distribution, and reduce poverty. The rebasing also enhances Nigeria’s credibility in the international arena, improving metrics such as debt-to-GDP ratios and signalling transparency and data maturity to investors and global financial institutions.

However, rebasing alone is not a magic wand. It does not automatically redistribute wealth or solve systemic inequalities. However, it equips the country with sharper tools to address them. It enables better governance and more informed economics. It moves Nigeria from flying blind to flying with instruments, and that can make all the difference.

Ultimately, what Nigeria has achieved is more than mere statistical progress; it is a step toward self-awareness. The rebased GDP is a clearer mirror held up to the nation. Moreover, while the reflection it reveals may be complex, it is truer, bolder, and better equipped to guide us into the future.

The rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP is a significant milestone in the country’s journey toward evidence-based economic management. It represents not just a recalculation of figures, but a redefinition of how we see ourselves, our strengths, our gaps, and our potential. With this more transparent and inclusive picture of the economy, Nigeria is better positioned to design policies that align with current realities and address persistent challenges, such as poverty, unemployment, and inequality.

Ultimately, the rebasing exercise is a tool, not an endpoint. Its real value lies in how it is used by decision-makers, investors, and citizens alike. If fully embraced, it can guide smarter investments, fairer distribution of resources, and more strategic national planning. In a world where accurate data increasingly shapes power and progress, Nigeria’s renewed commitment to statistical rigour is not only commendable but also essential for building the prosperous and inclusive future its people deserve.

■ Jonathan, a public relations consultant, sent this piece from Abuja.