Edo governorship: How statistics of Edo registered voters, PVCs collection by LGAs will shape poll’s outcome

By Sola Oni

The outcome of the September 19 governirship election in Edo State will be shaped essentially by the number of votes the All Progressives Congress  (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are able to lock down in each of the three senatorial zones.

The fine details about how Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the APC and Governor Godwin Obaseki of the PDP go about locking down votes constitute a matter of strategy.

Whatever strategies both party may have adopted, the next few hours will determine whether or not, they were utilitarian and result-oriented.

Analysts contend that whoever is going to win the governorship poll must secure an emphatic victory,  with a wide margin of win in Edo South Senatorial District with the highest number of voter population.

Incidentally, both Ize-Iyamu and Obaseki are from the zone, which indicates that the contest in the zone, if both are on top of their strategy and game, may be down to the wire.

But, so many local considerations and winning issues will come into play here to determibe where the pendulum swings.

in Edo North Senatorial District with the next voter population figure, there are feelers that the election is seen as a contest between former Governor  Adams Oshiomhole and his former crony, Phillip Shaibu, who is the deputy governor and running mate to Obaseki.

Here Oshiomhole is said to enjoy a cult following by the people of the zone in appreciation of what he did for them while in the saddle for  eight years.

The people are said to be sympathetic to Oshiomhole over what  they perceive as his betrayal by Phillip Shaibu.

The election provides an opportunity for  them to appreciate and reassure him that one good turn deserves another.

The Oshiomhole phenomenon, acting in concert with other political influencers in the zone, is expected to cause a domino voting effect in favour of the APC.

In Edo Central, which is the traditional stronghold of the PDP, the voter population, unfortunately for the PDP, is the least. It is low such that whatever the PDP may get as a margin of lead, will be easily wiped out by the result from Edo North.

However, there are feelers of possibility of a shocker in Edo Central as it happened in 2012 when Oshiomhole won his re-election with Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu as Director General of his Governorship Campaign Organisation.

The 2012 defeat of the  PDP happened when the late Chief Tony Anenih was in charge of the party structure and the PDP was in government at the centre.

Oshiomhole had won in all 18 local government areas including, of course, the five in Edo Central.

In 2016, Pastor Ize-Iyamu, as PDP candidate won in Edo Central. He is known in the zone much more than Governor Obaseki in terms of grassroots politicking, political mobilisation and networking.

Bookmakers are predicting a neck- and -neck contest in Edo Central, given the current dynamics.

On the larger scale of factors and considerations, Edo South and Edo North are largely going to  decide the winner of the governorship election between Ize-Iyamu and Obaseki.

Below is the analysis/ breakdown of Edo voter population on local government basis.

Edo South is the dominant district in terms of registered voters and PVCs collection.

Edo South has 1,281,414 registered voters, according to YIAGA, quoting INEC figures.

In the zone, 78.1 per cent of the PVCs have been collected.

Conversely Edo North has 564,122 registered voters; 84 per cent of the PVCs have been collected.

In Edo Central, the total registered voters is 364,998; out of which 74.4 per cent have been collected.

Edo South
Oredo:
Registered voters 313,553;
PVCs collected 240,197

Ikpoba/Okha:
Registered voters 315,410;
PVCs collected 214,822

Egor:
Registered voters 219,832;
PVCs collected 158,817

Ovia Northeast:
Registered voters 143,009;
PVCs collected 113,167

Ovia Southwest:
Registered voters 96,409;
PVCs collected 77,468

Orhiomwon:
Registered voters 118,672;
PVCs collected 102,739

Uhunmwode:
Registered voters 74,529;
PVCs collected 57,290

Edo North
Etsako West:
Registered voters 160,137;
PVCs collected 128,188

Etsako East:
Registered voters 81,639;
PVCs collected 67,715

Etsako Central:
Registered voters 84,245;
PVCs collected 42,042

Akoko Edo:
Registered voters 119,254;
PVCs collected 115,343

Owan West:
Registered voters 61,193;
PVCs collected 46,245

Owan East:
Registered voters 91,841;
PVCs collected 77,827

Edo Central
Esan West:
Registered voters 99,983;
PVCs collected 83,467

Esan Central:
Registered voters 50,058;
PVCs collected 42,042

Esan Northeast:
Registered voters 84,245;
PVCs collected 66,790

Esan Southeast:
Registered voters 76,842;
PVCs collected 58,802

Igueben:
Registered voters 46,828;
PVCs collected 34,988